The Junk Hobby of 2023

[horfin]

Does anyone think we are (or have been) in the second coming of the Junk era? I recently subscribed to "What-Not" and I am not joking 24/hours a day 7 days a week there are breaks that are never ending. You flip over to ebay and there are breaks every day by multiple breakers. Dave and Adams, Blow-out Cards and Steel City collectibles have tons of inventory....Autographs out of premium stuff sell on what-not and facebook for $1; 1:1,000 pack inserts are going for $1/$2.

For example Topps chrome: which I always saw as a limited production - has all sorts of variations on its boxes and the base cards are the same throughout various boxes. 2021 Topps Chrome is on many retailer's shelves.

Is anyone worried that we are overpaying and the stuff is being massed produced on the level we have not seen since the late 80s and early 90s?
I thought I'd do a poll.

 

[LarryG]

As someone who has only been collecting as an adult since 2019, I can't compare to the junk era of the late 80s/90s when I wasn't collecting, but I have been having some of these same thoughts. Prices are definitely way up from 2019 and this includes vintage singles as well as new releases. We could surely be heading toward a bubble and prices may top out, but today’s cards won’t become as worthless as the junk wax era. There are simply too many rare cards, parallels, variations etc today and many will hold value even if the bulk of cards don’t.

I thought Topps stopping some of their sets was going to be a good thing (no more Opening Day, Gold Label, and a few others), but now I am not so sure. Maybe it has led to overproduction of the key sets (flagship, Chrome, Heritage), rather than spread out over more variety. I don’t know, though I do like the 2023 Big League more than the previous years’ Opening Day and Big League.

If Topps (Fanatics) feels the value slipping, I am sure it will try to make adjustments. For better or for worse, things always change, and it may take a while to get it "right" again. My focus is always on collecting what and how I like and not getting caught up in what I don't like.

As long as we are having fun, collecting what and how we want to collect, if or when the market crashes, we will be OK.

 

[northicehero99]

I think they are all overproducing, but you also have to weigh in the economy and environment. What I mean is that a few years ago we were all stuck inside and looking for things to do, so we ordered online and had it shipped to our door. This led to an increase in interest in the hobby and the crazy price increases on singles, hobby boxes, etc. Now things are heading back to normal and there is not as much demand as people can get out and enjoy the outdoors or do other hobbies that were limited in the COVID-19 era. Additionally, everything else has gone up in price the last year or so, so lots of people have less money to spend, which seems to be starting to cause older products to drop in price. I think there is overproduction more than the 90s, as these companies all try to get you gambling your money on breaks or boxes. What scares me more than that is that people will by a higher end product that contains fancy inserts or manufactured patches and not game used material. I am sorry, but if I am spending several hundred on a box of cards, i want authentic patches, jerseys, or autographs, not something printed in a machine. That and the changes being made where you feel you are getting less out of the boxes, as an example in the early 2000s almost every box had a game used card in it, now fewer boxes have them in them, but they have not appreciated in value with this shortage, that just does not make any sense, but I don't set the prices.

 

[Prosefan1]

I think instead of gathering 50 base Volpe rookies one should consider getting a gold /2023, pink /50, powder blue /50, vintage stock /99 or Camo /25 instead. Theyre gonna cost more but may be much more desirable down the road.

 

[darkman]

As an adult, I've been back in the hobby for the last 32 years. And I can attest that we have had the same conversation pretty much every one of those years. I don't try to figure out how many cards the manufacturers are making. I just love to collect, and I collect what I love. For many, that love seems to have gone away. In which case, better to just get a new hobby.

 

[NateisMe123]

I think despite the overproduction, the value in these products will always be there. Most individual cards will likely not have value due to supply and demand. However the chase aspect of the modern product will protect the value of these products. If you can potentially pull a rookie autograph of a hall of famer, a sealed box of that product will have a lot of value. That to me is where the main difference is between now and the junk wax era.

 

[tdcardz]

The only reason why I don't think we're in Junk Wax Era 2 is that "The Hobby" is now international. There are also more collectors now than there were in 1986-1993.

 

[kclj520]

Do you guys think that the sales are slowing down? I have not gotten stuff sold in probably the past 6 months the prices I once did on ebay, and I am noticing fewer shows offered in the STL area....could just be a microcosm of the hobby, but wondering what everyone else thinks??

Cheers!

Kevin

 

[NateisMe123]

.

 

[NateisMe123]

Do you guys think that the sales are slowing down? I have not gotten stuff sold in probably the past 6 months the prices I once did on ebay, and I am noticing fewer shows offered in the STL area....could just be a microcosm of the hobby, but wondering what everyone else thinks??

Cheers!

Kevin

My sales have been dead for about 6 months as well.

 

[horfin]

I’m getting a lot of nice stuff very cheap. Market is flooded

 

[kclj520]

My sales have been dead for about 6 months as well.

@NateisMe123

Sorry to hear, but man, it's SLOOOW rn....I was checking out some Star Wars forums, and the prices have definitely dropped this year....one guy was selling his collection in 2021, and had $1,000 on several Harrison Ford signed 8x10s, and he sold them all, just unbelievable the prices people were gladly paying.

@horfin
I was looking on eBay for similar stuff as i mentioned above, its high, but not quite that high anymore, maybe $500-600 with PSA. Still an absurd amount to pay, but there's a lot out there in every sport and all of entertainment too that isn't selling either! I'm glad you can pick good stuff up for cheap!!

Cheers!

Kevin

 

[Calsp3]

The problem today, seen from an long time collector, is the massive proliferation of the specialty card. You can still buy a set of the flagship Topps set for $50-60 and be done with it. That would have satisfied the youth of my early collecting days - we dreamed of filling out our sets but just never seemed to be able to - settling for cards of the players and teams we like the best. Then the junk era of great overproduction of the base sets, and a bit of diversity in manufacturers, that drove long term value into the dust. But now we have parallels, inserts, serial numbered, autos and game used relics, which all create a supply vs demand cost curve. Yes, the demand is driving costs up exponentially, it seems, with the search for that Gem Mint graded 10 or that 1/1 serial numbered auto raising the roof on pricing. It is no longer a hobby for the young in America, it is now a hobby for those with disposable income and the commercial prospector. And I just do not get the crazy speculation, and over demand / over pricing of the Rookie Card. To this old codger you need to prove your merit before your card gains value, and then your RC is something special.

 

[horfin]

The big bust is going to come on all these players. We all know that there are 1 maybe 2 cards from each set that are the real banger when you go back to say 2012/2013 and before. To suggest that all these guys are going to pan out is absurd.
My favorite example is manning/leaf

In the beginning all their cards were sought after eventually the value in Leaf disappeared.


the same is going to happen here

Gavin Lux recently in baseball. His values were up there and they all came down

Before that Ryan Howard

Like Elly De La Cruz in MLB two years ago his name was A Aquino - now playing in Japan.

The prices for some things are absurd the prices for others are unbelievably low.

 

[kclj520]

@Calsp3

You are spot on about the specialty cards, while that has been a thing for a few years, it seems like it's out of control now! They lose some of their lustre if they are overproduced!

@horfin

You are also spot on about the hot players, and people spending absurd amounts for RCs....I agree wholeheartedly about seeing what a player does before determining any kind of long term value for their cards!!